荷兰合作银行：疾病、贸易问题改变了全球生猪市场

Rising disease pressures are challenging the global market, specifically African Swine Fever (ASF) which continues to negatively affect production in Asian countries and adds uncertainty to trade and production prospects in other parts of the world. This was one of the key messages from Rabobank’s RaboResearch quarterly report.

不断增加的疾病疫情，特别是非洲猪瘟（ASF），正在挑战全球市场，目前仍然对亚洲国家的生产造成负面影响，并给世界其他地区的贸易和生产前景增加了不确定性。这是荷兰合作银行RaboResearch季度报告的关键信息之一。

ASF continues to threaten the global pork market, the Rabobank quarterly reportstated, and while China’s pork prices begin to rise, production responses in the rest of the world appear cautious. Other factors, including disease management and the weather, are hindering production in Europe and Brazil. The resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations is a positive development, implying a chance for China to review tariffs on US pork imports.

荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）季度报告称，非洲猪瘟继续威胁着全球猪肉市场，尽管中国猪肉价格开始上涨，但世界其它地区的生产反应似乎较为谨慎。包括疾病管理和天气在内的其他因素也在阻碍欧洲和巴西的生产。中美贸易谈判的重启是一个积极的进展，意味着中国有机会重新审视对美国猪肉进口的关税。

ASF impacts the global market

非洲猪瘟影响全球市场

In Asia, Rabobank estimates China’s current herd loss is 40%, year-on-year, and may expand to over 50% by the end of 2019. However, due to a large slaughter earlier in 2019, it it is expected that the country’s pork production will drop at a slower pace, down 25% for the year with an additional 10 - 15% decline in both herd and pork production in 2020. Meanwhile, ASF is spreading rapidly in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia while new cases were recently detected in North Korea. The report estimates that all Asian pork herds are at risk of ASF within the year. Europe remains challenged by ASF outbreaks but mainly in wild boar. The report adds that disease pressures are expected to affect global animal protein production for more than 5 years, and in the case of China, it may take even longer (Figure 1).

荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）估计，在亚洲，中国目前的牧群数量同比减少40%，到2019年底可能会扩大到50%以上。然而，由于2019年早些时候的大规模屠宰，预计中国的猪肉产量将以较慢的速度下降，今年将下降25%，到2020年，生猪和猪肉产量将分别下降10 - 15%。与此同时，非洲猪瘟正在越南、老挝和柬埔寨迅速蔓延，而朝鲜最近也发现了新的病例。该报告估计，亚洲所有的猪群在一年内都有感染非瘟的风险。欧洲仍然面临着非瘟爆发的挑战，但主要是在野猪身上。该报告补充说，疾病压力预计将影响全球动物肉类生产5年以上，而就中国而言，时间可能更长（图1）。

图1 —2018 - 2021年，中国猪肉预计产量

Global trade flow

全球贸易流

The unprecedented supply loss in China has altered global trade flows, and will continue to do so. China is the world’s largest export destination and in the first 5 months of 2019, EU exports to China were up 41% year-on-year, the bank’s analysts wrote.

中国前所未有的供应损失已经改变了全球贸易流动，并将继续如此。世行分析师写道，中国是世界上最大的出口目的地，2019年前5个月，欧盟对华出口同比增长41%。

Market speculation has contributed to the volatility in international prices and the pressure for further price appreciation will force traditional pork importers such as Mexico, Japan and South Korea to proactively compete for pork supplies, resulting in higher costs.

市场投机加剧了国际猪肉价格的波动，进一步涨价的压力将迫使墨西哥、日本和韩国等传统猪肉进口国积极争夺猪肉供应，从而导致成本上升。

The Rabobank highlights changes in market access and trade policies as major driving forces that will continue to impact trade flows.

荷兰合作银行强调，市场准入和贸易政策的变化将是继续影响贸易流的主要驱动力。

ASF causing tight supply in China

非瘟导致中国猪肉供应紧张

As ASF contiues to spread in China, prices are starting to rise, indicating tight supply. Since mid-June, live hog prices have increased – 40% higher than in 2018.

随着非瘟在中国的不断蔓延，猪肉价格开始上涨，表明供应紧张。自6月中旬以来，生猪价格比2018年高出40%。

Large inventories of frozen meat continue to pressure prices and weigh on market returns. Pork imports in May increased substantially with more shipments expected in the second half of 2019.

大量冻肉库存继续对价格构成压力，并对市场回报构成压力。5月份猪肉进口大幅增长，预计2019年下半年将有更多猪肉进口。

USA expects rise in pork production

预计美国猪肉产量将上升

In the USA, a large breeding herd (Figure 2) and improvement in productivity is expected to cause a 5.5% rise in pork production in the second half of 2019, year-on-year. Rabobank added that the resolution of trade terms of Mexico and Canada should boost exports, and the resumption of trade negotiations with China is positive, however, labour shortages remain a key constraint.

在美国，因有种猪的规模大（图2）、生产力提高，预计2019年下半年猪肉产量同比增长5.5%。荷兰合作银行补充称，墨西哥和加拿大贸易条件的解决应会提振出口，恢复与中国的贸易谈判是积极因素，但劳动力短缺仍是一个关键制约因素。

图2 —美国种猪规模 2010 - 2019

Europe sees better market prices

欧洲猪价将上涨

Meanwhile, the spread of ASF in Eastern Europe is discouraging expansion and high temperatures are slowing production growth, contributing to better market prices. Exports have increased from most member states, mainly driven by strong demand from China.

与此同时，ASF在东欧的蔓延正在抑制扩张，高温正在减缓生产增长，这有助于提高市场价格。大多数成员国的出口都有所增长，主要是受中国强劲需求的推动。

Brazil: Exports remain high

巴西：出口量仍然很大

Demand from China and Russia are driving exports from Brazil and while exports outpace production growth, the report noted that domestic pork prices increase.

中国和俄罗斯的需求推动了巴西的猪肉出口，而出口增速超过了生产增速，报告指出，巴西国内猪肉价格正在上涨。